U.S. efforts to lower diesel prices contributed to a sharp increase in Russian diesel exports last month, though none of the additional shipments linked to President Donald Trump’s decision to lift fuel sanctions on Moscow were delivered to the United States.
According to Kpler, Russia’s diesel exports rose to 271,000 barrels per day in October, up from 135,000 barrels per day in September. The increase followed U.S. pressure on Ukraine to halt attacks on Russian refineries and came after President Donald Trump declared an agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin on October 9 to increase fuel supplies to U.S. and global markets.
While no Russian diesel has yet been delivered to the U.S. market, exports to countries including Brazil and Turkey increased as efforts by pro-Ukraine groups disrupted some shipments bound for the United States. A White House official told the Financial Times that higher Russian diesel exports would help increase global supply and ease fuel prices, in line with the agreement reached between Trump and Putin.
Ship-tracking data shows that at least two tankers bound for the U.S. have diverted to other destinations in recent weeks. One tanker carrying Russian diesel remains off the U.S. East Coast awaiting a buyer, while discussions with the vessel’s owner are ongoing. The agreement between Trump and Putin drew criticism from Democratic lawmakers and some Republicans, who argued it could be unlawful and called on Trump to withdraw from the deal.
Earlier this month, Mikie Sherrill, governor of New Jersey, warned port and terminal operators to reject tankers carrying Russian diesel, warning that violations could result in significant penalties.
According to Richard Bronze, head of geopolitics at Energy Aspects, Russian diesel exports increased from 120,000 barrels per day in September to 260,000 barrels per day in October, although volumes remained well below the five-year October average of about 700,000 barrels per day.
Bronze said the recent increase reflected improved refinery output in Russia following a pause in Ukrainian attacks on refining infrastructure. He attributed the rise largely to U.S. pressure on Ukraine and President Donald Trump’s announcement of an energy ceasefire.
Ukraine resumed attacks on Russian refineries on October 30, following a two-week pause. Russia has also extended its diesel export ban until the end of January, with certain exemptions, according to Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, who oversees the country’s energy sector.
Sumit Ritolia, an analyst at Kpler, said Russia would prioritize domestic fuel supplies amid growing shortages, particularly of petrol, which the country has begun rationing. He added that Russian refinery operations remained under significant pressure and were expected to stay limited at around 4mn barrels per day in the near term, with little prospect of a substantial recovery as Ukrainian attacks continue.
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