Global trade is on track to exceed $35 trillion in 2025 for the first time, according to UNCTAD’s final Global Trade Update of the year. The data show that trade continued to expand through the second half of 2025, although geopolitical tensions, elevated costs, and uneven global demand have begun to slow the pace of growth.
Between July and September, global trade rose 2.5% compared with the previous quarter, with goods increasing nearly 2% and services 4%. Growth is expected to continue into the final quarter of the year, though at a more modest rate of 0.5% for goods and 2% for services.
If forecasts hold, goods will add an estimated $1.5 trillion to full-year totals and services about $750 billion, resulting in an overall annual increase of approximately 7%.
A notable shift is emerging in price dynamics. After two quarters in which rising prices contributed to higher trade values, global trade growth is now being driven primarily by increased volumes. This suggests that demand remains steady even as inflation cools, with more goods being shipped rather than simply becoming more expensive.
East Asia, Africa, and South–South trade drive gains
East Asia posted the strongest export growth over the past year at 9%, supported by a 10% surge in intra-regional trade. Africa also performed well, with imports up 10% and exports rising 6%. Trade among developing economies expanded around 8%, reflecting deepening South–South commercial ties.
China and the Republic of Korea were key drivers in East Asia, while Brazil and South Africa contributed significantly to growth in South America and Africa. India and China recorded some of the strongest gains in services exports, reinforcing the rising influence of emerging economies in global trade.
Manufacturing expansion continues, but autos lag
Manufacturing output rose 10% over the year, led by a 14% jump in electronics, buoyed by demand linked to artificial intelligence. Agriculture also saw strong gains in the third quarter.
The cereals and fruit-and-vegetable exports are each increasing by 11%. By contrast, the automotive trade fell 4%, and the fossil-fuel trade declined as energy prices moderated.
Recovery gains strength, but risks remain
Trade flows in 2025 consistently outperformed global economic growth, reversing the stagnation seen between 2023 and 2024. However, UNCTAD warns that imbalances remain significant, and structural shifts such as friendshoring and nearshoring continue to reshape global trade patterns as countries prioritise politically aligned or geographically closer partners.
Looking ahead to 2026, the agency expects weaker trade growth as slower global activity, rising debt, higher trade costs, and persistent uncertainty weigh on performance.
ORGANIZATIONS NEWS | IMF Warns China to Address Economic Imbalances as Surplus Hits $1tn
