Global table grape markets are entering a period of structural adjustment as expanding acreage, uneven production trends, and faster trade flows reshape supply and demand dynamics, with Asia emerging as the primary engine of growth.
Industry data indicate that countries accounting for more than 60% of global table grape acreage are expected to expand their planted area by 3 to 4% year-on-year in the MY25 provisional season. Growth is being led by China, the United States, and India, while most other producing nations are expected to post only marginal increases or remain stable.
India reached record-high acreage levels in MY24 and expanded further in MY25, supported by favorable weather and strong farmgate prices. The U.S. suffered a sharp production setback in MY24 after Hurricane Hilary disrupted harvesting in California, the country’s main grape-growing region.
Despite acreage gains, global production growth is expected to remain modest. The countries covered in the data account for nearly 90% of worldwide output, which is forecast to rise by just 0% to 1% in MY25. Growth is concentrated in China and Egypt, together representing around 60% of global production and expected to register 1%to 5% annual growth.
At the same time, producers representing nearly 12% of global output are projected to face declines of 16 to 20% due to adverse weather and disease pressure.
India’s production is expected to decline in MY25 following unfavorable weather and mildew outbreaks, particularly in Karnataka and Maharashtra. U.S. output is forecast to rebound as yields normalize in California, which accounts for nearly 90% of national production.
Improved cluster formation, larger berry size, and lower disease incidence compared with the heat- and storm-affected MY24 season are supporting the recovery outlook.
Trade flows are expected to accelerate sharply. Countries included in the data account for about 88% of global table grape exports, which are projected to rise by around 10% year on year in MY25. Export growth is being driven by strong rebounds in the U.S., Uzbekistan, China, and Peru, with shipment increases estimated at between 17% and 34%.
Rising import demand from Russia, Southeast Asia, Mexico, and Bangladesh is underpinning the export surge. Peru’s performance stands out, with table grape shipments projected to reach about 620,000 metric tons in MY26, generating close to $1.9 billion in export revenue. Expanded acreage and strong early-season dispatches are expected to further strengthen Peru’s role in global supply.
On the demand side, Asia is consolidating its position as the world’s fastest-growing import market. Countries representing roughly 80% of global table grape imports have recorded steady growth since MY20.
Import volumes have expanded at annual rates of 7% to 10% across Southeast Asia, 16 percent in Bangladesh, 7% in Russia, and about 5% in the European Union.
Southeast Asia, already a net importer of fresh produce, has seen fruit imports rise by nearly 20% annually over the past three years, with grapes among the leading categories.
In Vietnam, fruit imports reached $1.91 billion in the first nine months of 2025, up 15.1% year on year. Imports from the U.S. surged nearly 47% over the same period, signalling further upside for grape demand.
Thailand’s import market highlights shifting competitive dynamics. Thailand sources about 89% of its grape imports from China, driven by a low-cost, year-round supply, while Australia occupies the premium segment, particularly for seedless varieties.
India’s share remains limited at around 2% despite a clear price advantage, with average Indian export prices significantly below Australian levels.
Quality remains the key differentiator. Australian grapes benefit from more uniform berry size, higher sugar content, and stronger shelf stability. Industry analysts note that improvements in post-harvest handling, cold-chain infrastructure, and quality consistency could materially enhance India’s competitiveness in the Thai market, where demand is concentrated in varieties already produced in India.
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