China is set to expand its pear exports in the 2025/26 marketing year despite a dip in production and a sharp fall in imports of Western pear varieties, according to the USDA’s latest Fresh Deciduous Fruit Annual report. The marketing year runs from July to June.
The report estimates China’s pear production will fall to 20.5 million tons in 2025/26, a 2% decline from the revised estimate for 2024/25. Weather played a decisive role in the uneven output across major producing regions.
Anhui, a key production area in southern China, benefited from a favorable climate and improved cultivation practices, resulting in steady increases. Shandong and Shaanxi recorded production losses due to summer drought and heat. Hebei, China’s largest pear-producing province, is expected to maintain stable yields.
Production pressures are not only weather-related. Oversupply, stagnant domestic consumption, and a gradual reduction in planted area are weighing on long-term output potential. The USDA expects these market forces to continue compressing commercial acreage over time.
Imports are projected to decline as consumer demand weakens for western pear varieties. The USDA forecasts total pear imports will fall below 6,000 tons in 2025/26, down from more than 8,000 tons in the previous marketing year. The shift reflects a continued preference for local varieties and reduced reliance on imported fruit.
Despite declining production and imports, China remains the top global supplier of fresh pears. In 2024, Chinese exports accounted for more than 30% of global trade volume, according to Trade Data Monitor. The USDA projects that export volumes will continue rising in 2025/26 as shipments strengthen to regional partners.
South-East Asian markets remain central export destinations, including Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia. China also ships significant volumes to buyers in the Middle East and Central Asia. Exports to Russia have increased in recent years, signalling a potentially growing market and continued diversification of China’s pear trade routes.
TRAVEL & TOURISM | Thailand Hits 1 Million UK Tourist Arrivals in 2025
