India is preparing for potential increases in fertilizer prices ahead of the crucial rabi (winter) crop season following China’s suspension of urea and specialty fertilizer exports from October 15, 2025, a senior industry official confirmed on Tuesday.
China, which had resumed exports between May 15 and October 15 with heightened inspections, has now halted shipments indefinitely.
The suspension affects global markets and covers key specialty fertilizers such as Technical Monoammonium Phosphate (TMAP) and urea-solution products like AdBlue, along with conventional fertilizers like DAP and urea.
“China has closed the export window from October 15, not only for India but the entire world market,” said Soluble Fertilizer Industry Association (SFIA) President Rajib Chakraborty. “I believe the export suspension will be for the next five to six months.”
India relies heavily on China for its fertilizer imports, sourcing about 95% of specialty products, including phosphates and emission-control fluids. Chakraborty warned that prices, already elevated, could rise by 10–15% due to the curbs.
The country consumes around 250,000 tons of specialty fertilizers annually, with 60–65% used during the rabi season from October to March. Despite the expected price surge, the official noted that supplies for the current season are secured through global trading agencies.
“If Chinese export curbs continue beyond March 2026, then it would be a concern,” Chakraborty said, adding that the rabi season may extend until March this year owing to improved water availability.
While India has alternative sources such as South Africa, Chile, and Croatia, these can only meet limited demand for specific products, highlighting the potential strain on global supply chains if China maintains the export freeze.
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