Global rice prices are falling as record-high production levels flood the market, but Thailand is moving in the opposite direction with export prices continuing to climb.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s latest Rice Outlook report projects global rice production at a record 541.1 million tons for 2025/26. Combined with carryover stocks, this will push total global supply to 729.5 million tons, the highest ever recorded, and the third straight year of growth.
The oversupply has pushed down values in several exporting nations. During the week of 9 September 2025, U.S. rice prices for the Latin American market fell by $45 per ton, while Vietnam’s dropped by $18 following the Philippines’ 60-day import ban.
Thailand has seen prices rise. Thai 100% grade B paddy rice reached $372 per ton, while Thai Hom Mali fragrant rice jumped to $1,148 per ton, up from $1,109 just two weeks earlier. White and parboiled rice varieties also recorded price gains.
The Thai Rice Exporters Association attributes the increase largely to the baht’s appreciation against the U.S. dollar. The exchange rate strengthened from 32.7 baht per dollar on 20 August 2025 to 31.8 baht per dollar by 17 September.
The stronger export performance has not benefited Thai farmers. Data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives show farm-gate paddy prices slipping. Jasmine paddy rice from the main crop averaged 14,817 baht per ton during 8–14 September, down from 14,825 baht the previous week.
The Office of Agricultural Economics (OAE) has cautioned that prices may weaken further once Thailand’s 2025/26 main harvest reaches the market. An estimated 17.375 million tons of paddy rice are expected to be released in November, posing major challenges for domestic rice management.
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