Morocco is witnessing a growing disparity between its imports and exports, driven by surging domestic demand and an increasingly challenging global trade environment. According to a new report by the Moroccan High Commission for Planning (HCP), Morocco’s import rate is rising faster than its export growth, putting pressure on the country’s trade balance.
The report attributes this imbalance to a combination of internal and external factors. While national exports are projected to grow, they remain impacted by global geopolitical tensions and economic slowdown in key trading partners, particularly within the European Union.
Phosphates remain Morocco’s primary export, and their outlook is improving. Global demand, especially from Latin America, Europe, and Asia, is expected to rise due to sanctions on Russian and Chinese phosphate exports. This is anticipated to contribute to a 5.7% increase in overall export value in 2025, followed by a 6% rise in 2026.
The agricultural sector is also expected to improve, supporting future export growth. Similarly, Morocco’s tourism industry continues to perform strongly, helping to boost service exports, particularly in travel and transport.
Other sectors face headwinds. The textile industry is under pressure due to shifting European policies, weakening demand, and intensified international competition. The automotive sector is grappling with Europe’s transition to electric vehicles and short-term technical and commercial disruptions.
Despite the positive export forecasts, import volumes are expected to grow at a faster pace. The HCP projects a 7.6% increase in import value for 2025 and 6.4% in 2026, largely driven by higher imports of capital goods and semi-finished products. Goods imports are set to rise by 8.8% in 2025 and 7.9% in 2026.
Although Morocco may reduce wheat imports due to a better agricultural season, livestock imports will remain necessary amid ongoing supply pressures. Meanwhile, service imports are forecast to outpace exports, leading to a negative services trade balance despite overall growth.
According to the HCP, total exports of goods and services are projected to rise by 6.7% in 2025 and 7% in 2026. Imports, however, are forecast to grow by 8.5% and 7.6%, respectively, during the same period.
Encouragingly, the report notes that five months’ worth of service imports in 2025 will be covered by foreign currency inflows through investment, offering a degree of financial cushioning.
The HCP concludes that Morocco is currently in a phase of moderate economic expansion, with a mixed outlook for the coming two years. While challenges persist, the country is expected to make necessary adjustments to maintain macroeconomic stability and competitiveness in the evolving world economy.
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