U.S. imports and exports have fallen sharply, approaching the lows experienced during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to recent trade data. The downturn follows the implementation of new tariffs under former President Donald Trump’s trade policy, which has disrupted supply chains and triggered a marked decline in both inbound and outbound shipping activity.

Trade analytics firm Vizion reported that what initially began as a major drop in U.S. imports has now extended to exports, with particular impact on the agricultural sector. American farm products such as soybeans, corn, and beef have been hit hard, with declining container bookings and weakening access to global markets. Peter Friedmann, executive director of the Agriculture Transportation Coalition (AgTC), described the situation as a “full-blown crisis.”

The steepest export decline was recorded at the Port of Oregon, where volumes fell by 51%, followed by a 28% drop at the Port of Tacoma. Both ports heavily rely on trade with Asia, particularly China, Japan, and South Korea. Other major export hubs such as the Port of Los Angeles, Port of Savannah, and Port of Norfolk also registered significant declines, while the Ports of Houston and Seattle saw more modest drops of 3% and 3.5%, respectively.

Kyle Henderson, CEO of Vizion, noted that the severity of disruption rivals that of summer 2020. “Goods expected to arrive in the next six to eight weeks simply won’t. With tariffs driving costs higher, small businesses are pausing orders,” Henderson said. “Products that once moved reliably are now twice as expensive, forcing importers into tough decisions.”

Vizion also observed a 43% week-over-week decrease in container volumes between April 21 and April 28. The decline has been attributed to businesses reducing manufacturing orders due to increased costs and uncertain global demand driven by the latest round of tariffs.

Bank of America Global Research echoed similar concerns, projecting a continued drop in U.S. imports, particularly from Asia. The bank warned that container ship arrivals at the Port of Los Angeles will fall sharply in May, with overall Asian imports expected to decline by 15% to 20% in the near term. Retailers, anticipating price hikes and product shortages, have encouraged consumers to make early purchases. However, retail inventories remain tight, and any supply disruptions could quickly affect product availability and pricing.

Tim Robertson, CEO of DHL Global Forwarding, advised that retailers should secure capacity early, especially in sectors like toys, electronics, and fashion, to maintain flexibility in adjusting product assortments. He stressed the importance of managing logistics flow across ocean, air, and intermodal channels, rather than increasing volume, to adapt to shifting demand.

POLICY  & LAW | UK and India Finalize Trade Agreement to Elevate Economic Ties