Global cotton supply and demand projections for 2025–26 have been revised upward in the November update of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
The outlook shows higher production, consumption, trade, and inventories compared with the September report.
Worldwide production is now expected to reach 120.08 million bales of 480 pounds each, an increase of 2.4 million bales. The rise is led by an additional 1 million bales in China, nearly 900,000 bales in the United States, and 500,000 bales in Brazil.
Global trade is lifted by 300,000 bales to 44 million bales, while global consumption is marginally higher at 118.88 million bales. Beginning stocks have been revised up by more than 400,000 bales, mainly due to updated 2024–25 trade data from several countries.
Opening inventories for 2025–26 are now estimated at 74.49 million bales. With these adjustments, global ending stocks are raised by about 2.8 million bales to 75.9 million bales.
The U.S. outlook for 2025–26 shows higher production, exports, and ending stocks compared with September, with no changes to consumption or imports.
U.S. output is now forecast at 14.1 million bales, almost 900,000 bales higher than earlier estimates, supported by stronger yield expectations across most States. The national average yield projection has risen nearly 7% to 919 pounds per harvested acre.
U.S. exports are raised by 200,000 bales to 12.2 million bales. The remainder of the production increase flows into ending stocks, which rise by almost 20% to 4.3 million bales.
This results in a stocks-to-use ratio of 30.9%. The projected season-average upland cotton price for 2025–26 has been reduced to 62 cents per pound.
POLICY & LAW | China Blocks Japanese Seafood as Taiwan Dispute Grows
