Uganda has recorded a significant drop in its trade deficit, driven largely by a surge in coffee exports and reduced imports. According to official figures, the country’s trade deficit fell by 83.7% in February 2025 compared to the same month last year, from $271.1 million to $44.26 million.
This sharp improvement stems from a rise in agricultural export earnings, particularly coffee, alongside a concerted effort to cut back on imports. Coffee alone brought in $167 million in February 2025, with additional contributions from cocoa, tobacco, mineral products, and fish.
The Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry, and Fisheries reported that Uganda exported 6.57 million bags of coffee between March 2024 and February 2025, earning $1.72 billion, a 6.99% increase in volume and a 70.71% rise in value over the previous period. The spike in value is attributed to a price jump, with coffee selling at $5 per kilogram in February, up from $3 the previous year.
President of the Uganda Coffee Federation, Robert Byaruhanga, described the export success as a positive development, stressing the need to reinvest earnings to reach the national goal of 20 million bags annually. “That is what will give us a voice globally,” he said.
Global coffee supply constraints, caused by extreme weather in Brazil and Vietnam, have also contributed to higher international prices, benefiting Uganda’s export revenues. However, concerns loom over the upcoming EU deforestation regulation set to take effect in December. Uganda has pledged to comply with the regulation to safeguard its market access.
Trade analysts emphasize that Uganda could further reduce its import dependence by processing more of its agricultural output domestically. “These are some of the initiatives of government… so that you sell more value but also reduce what you’re importing,” said Isaac Shinyekwa, Head of Trade and Regional Integration at the Economic Policy Research Center.
The government is also advancing plans to expand local manufacturing, and projections suggest that Uganda’s import bill will decline further when domestic oil production begins by 2030.
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