The trade halt resulting from the suspension of bilateral trade between Pakistan and Afghanistan for nearly two and a half months has delivered a far heavier economic blow to Kabul than to Islamabad, with Afghan export losses running several times higher, according to trade data and industry estimates.
The disruption followed a deterioration in relations over security concerns. Pakistan closed its border in October, and Afghanistan suspended trade ties in early November. Since October 10, 2025, Afghanistan’s export losses are estimated at about 10% of its total exports, compared with roughly 0.6% for Pakistan.
The disparity reflects deep asymmetries in trade dependence. Around 46% of Afghanistan’s exports are destined for Pakistan, including a substantial share routed onward to India via the Wagah border.
Afghanistan accounts for only about 3.46% of Pakistan’s global exports. The assessment excludes transit trade, which represents roughly 40% of Afghanistan’s total imports, further increasing Kabul’s exposure to border disruptions.
India has emerged as Afghanistan’s second-largest export destination, absorbing about 40% of its exports despite the absence of a shared border. Exports to other neighboring markets remain limited, with Iran accounting for 1.94%, Uzbekistan for 3.14%, and Tajikistan for 0.37%, underscoring the concentration of Afghan export markets in Pakistan and India.
Afghanistan’s export composition adds to its vulnerability. Fruits and vegetables accounted for 71% of total exports in 2024, according to World Bank estimates, making it difficult to rapidly redirect shipments to alternative markets. While Kabul may shift some imports toward Central Asia, Iran, and India, replacing Pakistan as a primary export conduit remains a significant challenge.
For Pakistan, the immediate impact has been more contained. Average export losses since October are estimated at about $222.5 million, or roughly 0.6% of total exports, compared with Afghanistan’s estimated $173 million loss, equivalent to around 10% of its average annual exports.
Historically, Pakistan has maintained a trade surplus with Afghanistan. Pakistani exports declined after August 2021 but recovered to $1.39 billion in fiscal year 2024, driven mainly by medicines, rice, and cement. Afghan exports to Pakistan stood at $612 million in fiscal year 2025, keeping Pakistan as Afghanistan’s single largest export market.
The trade halt is also accelerating shifts in sourcing. Khan Jan Alokozai, president of the Afghanistan–Pakistan Joint Chamber of Commerce, said Afghan traders are increasingly placing cement orders with Iran, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan, while medicines are being sourced from Turkey, Uzbekistan, Iran, and India using air cargo.
Pakistani pharmaceutical products still account for an estimated 60% to 70% of Afghanistan’s market, he said, but that share is coming under pressure.
Transit trade trends point in the same direction. Afghanistan’s imports totaled $10.8 billion in 2024, with Pakistan supplying about 32%. Tighter controls and an expanding negative list for transit cargo have reduced Afghan imports transiting Pakistan from $6.7 billion in fiscal year 2023 to $1.01 billion in fiscal year 2025, with industry estimates suggesting the figure could fall below $1 billion in fiscal year 2026.
Business groups on both sides have called for trade to resume, warning that prolonged disruption could permanently entrench alternative routes and suppliers. Former Sarhad Chamber of Commerce and Industry president Muhammad Ishaq said uncertainty has also stalled planned industrial relocations, including textile operations that had begun shifting from Punjab to Central Asia.
Analysts say the data highlight a clear imbalance. While Pakistan faces manageable losses, the suspension risks accelerating structural changes in Afghanistan’s trade patterns that could prove difficult to reverse even if borders reopen.
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