High tariffs on U.S. imports are expected to remain in place even with a Supreme Court ruling that former President Donald Trump improperly used emergency powers to impose them, according to trade experts.
During Wednesday’s hearing, several Supreme Court justices expressed doubts about Trump’s use of the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to justify broad tariffs on imports from nearly all trading partners.
The Trump administration had argued that the measures were essential to narrow America’s trade deficit and strengthen domestic manufacturing.
Ted Murphy, co-leader of global arbitration, trade, and advocacy at Sidley Austin, said the outcome of the case would not necessarily change the tariff landscape.
“Even if the Supreme Court were to strike down the IEEPA tariffs going forward, the result won’t be any different,” he said. “The U.S. will be living in a higher tariff rate environment going forward; it just might be under different tariff authorities.”
Legal alternatives exist for maintaining elevated tariffs. Trump could invoke Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, which allows duties on imports deemed a threat to national security, or Section 301 of the Trade
Act of 1974, which addresses unfair trade practices. Both options, however, require formal investigations and are considered more complex and time-consuming than IEEPA’s broad emergency powers.
Patrick Childress, an international trade attorney at Holland & Knight, noted that turning to these statutes would delay implementation. “Section 232 and 301 are the most obvious directions for the administration to turn, but they’d likely take months to conclude, rather than weeks,” he said.
A Supreme Court ruling against Trump could also expose the government to refund claims from businesses that paid tariffs under IEEPA. As of August, importers had paid nearly $89 billion in such duties, according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection.
“I definitely want my money back,” said Rick Woldenberg, CEO of Learning Resources, one of the plaintiffs in the case, calling the tariffs a “massive tax” on businesses.
The U.S. currently has an average tariff rate of 18%, the highest level since 1934, according to the Yale Budget Lab. Analysts say that even with a ruling against Trump, tariffs would likely remain high, with businesses and investors facing greater policy uncertainty.
Grace Zwemmer, associate economist at Oxford Economics, said, “It is only going to lead to heightened uncertainty regarding trade policy, so it might have a lagged impact on hiring and business investment, similar to what we saw earlier this year.”
The White House has not commented on whether Trump would rely on other laws to reinstate tariffs if the court rules against his use of IEEPA.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed optimism on Fox Business, saying he remains “confident that the President’s emergency powers” will be upheld, citing the administration’s handling of past economic challenges. The Supreme Court is expected to issue its ruling early next year.
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