The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised concerns over Pakistan’s external trade figures, urging the government to resolve the inconsistencies of around $11 billion in import data reported by two state agencies over the past few fiscal years.
According to The Express Tribune, import figures for the 2023–2024 fiscal year provided by the two separate agencies, Pakistan Revenue Automation Limited (PRAL) and Pakistan Single Window (PSW), showed a discrepancy of nearly $5.1 billion. PRAL reported import figures were $5.1 billion lower than the figures reported by PSW.
In the subsequent year, the gap in import data grew to $5.7 billion, with PSW’s reported figures surpassing those derived from the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) freight-on-board calculations, which were used to determine the current account surplus.
Government sources have attributed the discrepancies not to any ‘malafide intent’ but to the ongoing transition from PRAL to PSW as the primary data source. Earlier this year, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif ordered PRAL to be shut down by December, following an unsuccessful attempt to upgrade its IT infrastructure, which was financed through a World Bank loan. Established over 30 years ago, PRAL is wholly owned by a private entity under Pakistan’s Federal Board of Revenue (FBR).
PRAL’s import data, particularly for raw materials, was underreported because it relies on seven types of goods declarations, whereas PSW uses a more comprehensive system with 15 types. Additionally, there is a significant mismatch between the goods declared by Pakistani importers and those reported by Chinese exporters.
As reported by The Express Tribune, Prime Minister Sharif formed a committee to investigate the matter. The committee found that the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), which submits data to the Geneva-based International Trade Center (ITC), had underreported imports due to an outdated program query developed in 2017.
PBS relies on PRAL data for its trade reporting, but PRAL’s system did not include a separate goods declaration category for trade facilitation schemes introduced by Pakistan Customs. This led to significant underreporting of imports, particularly in the textile sector, where discrepancies amounted to around $3 billion. PBS is reportedly hesitant to make these discrepancies public, as doing so could affect the country’s economic outlook.
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