Brazil could expand its access to the global goods import market from 8% to 36% following the Mercosur–European Union trade agreement, according to a new survey released by the National Confederation of Industry (CNI).
The figures were published on Saturday, Jan. 17, after representatives of Mercosur and the European Union signed the treaty in Asunción, Paraguay. The agreement must still be ratified by the European Parliament and the national legislatures of each Mercosur member country.
CNI said the deal represents a structural turning point for the Brazilian industry, both in market access and regulatory alignment.
The survey estimates that 54.3% of traded products, more than 5,000 tariff lines, will enter the European Union at zero duty once the agreement comes into force. On the Mercosur side, Brazil will phase out tariffs on 44.1% of products, around 4,400 items, over a longer period of 10 to 15 years, allowing a gradual adjustment for the domestic industry.
Based on 2024 trade data, 82.7% of Brazil’s exports to the EU will become tariff-free immediately, while Brazil will remove tariffs on only 15.1% of EU imports at the outset, giving Brazil a favorable transition balance. On average, Brazil will have eight additional years to adapt to tariff reductions compared with the EU.
CNI described the agreement as the most comprehensive trade pact ever negotiated by Mercosur, covering not only tariffs but also regulatory standards, investment protection, and market transparency.
In 2024, the European Union absorbed $48.2 billion of Brazilian exports, representing 14.3% of the country’s total exports and ranking as Brazil’s second-largest market after China. Imports from the EU totaled $47.2 billion, accounting for 17.9% of total imports.
The industrial impact is significant. For every BRL 1 billion exported from Brazil to the EU in 2024, approximately 21,800 jobs were generated, producing BRL 441.7 million in wages and BRL 3.2 billion in output, according to CNI.
Agribusiness is expected to benefit from expanded quota access. Beef quotas negotiated under the agreement are more than double those granted to Canada and over four times those allocated to Mexico. Rice quotas exceed Brazil’s current export volumes to the bloc, creating room for further expansion.
The agreement also opens pathways for technological cooperation in sustainability and industrial decarbonization. CNI highlighted opportunities in carbon capture and storage, low-emission hydrogen, electrification, hybrid-flex engines, battery recycling, and bio-inputs for climate-resilient agriculture.
Trade data shows that 98.4% of Brazil’s imports from the EU are manufactured products, while 46.3% of Brazil’s exports to the bloc are industrial goods. The EU remains Brazil’s largest foreign investor, accounting for 31.6% of foreign direct investment in 2023, totaling $321.4 billion. Brazil is also the largest Latin American investor in the EU, with nearly 64% of Brazilian overseas investments directed to the bloc.
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