The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has projected a sluggish year for the Windsor housing market, with both home sales and new construction expected to slow.
According to its latest Housing Market Outlook, elevated building costs, subdued demand, and an increasing inventory of unsold homes will place significant pressure on Canadian homebuilders. The report further anticipates that new housing construction will continue to decline through 2028, underscoring persistent challenges for the sector.
Anthony Passarelli, CMHC’s Lead Economist for Southern Ontario, attributes the slowdown to broader economic uncertainty, particularly stemming from Canada’s trade relationship with the United States.
He noted that the uncertainty is expected to weigh on consumer confidence, discouraging some households from making major purchases such as homes, while also prompting certain builders to delay projects.
The two nations are scheduled to renegotiate the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) later this year.
The report anticipates that home sales will remain below historical averages in 2026, with prices expected to register modest gains following the decline in 2025. Housing market performance is projected to vary regionally: Ontario and British Columbia are likely to experience weaker construction and sales compared with their 10-year averages, while the Prairies and Quebec are expected to perform above.
Canada’s economic growth is projected to remain slow in 2026, influenced by geopolitical and trade uncertainties, soft labor markets, and modest income gains. Growth is expected to gradually strengthen in 2027 and 2028. Total housing starts in the Windsor CMA are predicted to decline further in 2026, reflecting persistent weakness in both ground-oriented and condominium apartment construction.
In the Windsor area, CMHC’s Housing Market Outlook 2026 forecasts 5,800 home sales this year at an average price of $575,000.
Elevated resale inventory and shifting migration patterns continue to dampen homeownership demand. According to Passarelli, new construction over the coming years will be primarily driven by the rental market.
CMHC expects that, as broader economic conditions stabilize in 2027 and 2028, an increase in homeownership demand is expected to support a recovery in ground-oriented housing starts. This growth is likely to extend to outer areas of the CMA, including Tecumseh and Amherstburg.
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